Changing currents or stormwater disruption?

In a diversion from the usual sport related topics on this blog, I’m going to take on politics today. The results are in after the European elections on Thursday and I have to admit that I was left reeling at the news that the Conservatives won the popular vote within Wales. Yes, that’s the Conservatives. Winning in Wales. Frankly I’m stunned.

To add to this, UKIP managed to beat the Lib Dems in the race for the fourth seat, leading to them seriously considering targeting seats in the Assembly. Contributing further to the shocks, the BNP party managed to get only 1000 votes fewer than the Greens. Honestly, I thought we were better than that.

As most will be aware, we in Wales are traditionally very much to the left end of the spectrum compared to other parts of the country, so for right of centre or out and out right wing parties such as UKIP to gain seats like this is a surprise. The question is whether this is a change in the political currents in Wales, or merely a muddying of the waters due to the massive stormwater runoff emanating from the Westminster expenses debacle, the economic crisis and the general implosion of the Labour party as a viable and credible political entity.

Turnout was obviously low (30% or so) but I’d be interested to see where the turnout was highest in Wales. Did traditional Labour voters in the Valleys just not turn up at the polling station, or does this represent a genuine shift to the right in Welsh politics?

Labour would have been hoping that they could rely on the Welsh vote to bolster their performance and provide some sort of salvation at the ballot box. I can only imagine how shocked they must be at this result. But what they must realise is that the Labour party that stood for election nationally is not the Labour party that the people of Wales, especially South Wales, have traditionally voted for. They are now a centre party, not even a centre-left party, and with the lack of a genuine left of centre party nationally (Plaid still put people off with the nationalist tag though their politics are generally the most in line with mainstream Welsh political beliefs), swathes of the Welsh electorate are left feeling disenfranchised.

If there is an imminent general election (Labour at the moment seem to be delaying the inevitable in that respect) then it could be that Wales will be the only place left in the UK where Labour is in power. They will have a handful of local authorities where they have overall control, where they have none in England and only two in Scotland and a power-sharing agreement in the Senedd with Plaid. Quite a shift from a decade ago where they controlled Westminster, the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and many local authorities.